Can you tell me what you disagree with? Both Swol and I used the exact setup from your log (exact gear, talents, artifact path, etc). We do that so we can compare apples to apples (and you can do that with the 'import from log' feature). Then as swol pointed out, you got a lot of lucky procs, bringing your DPS up well above average.
To take a step back: simulation run thousands of iterations, so it gets some iterations with a ton of luck, some with bad luck, and some in the middle. It averages those out. So when you get lucky streaks, you SHOULD beat a simulation.
For Chaotic Onslaught, you can sim with it, and then without it, and you'll see the DPS difference is large, as you suspected. So that is working right (if that was one of your questions).
And as yellow said, send over data and we will take a look.