Old discussion about hit in WoW Classic

Ask Mr. Robot WoW Classic
21

I saw 8.6% only on 2 theorycrafter posts and both were rejected by community.

Currently all other sources use:

The most popular MAGEY’S FORMULA + 1% Ignorance

Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill <= 10
Hit Cap = 5% + (Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill) * 0.1%

Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill > 10
Hit Cap = 5% + (Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill) * 0.2% + 1%

It give us 6% for 305 WS and 9% for 300 WS, what looks good, but 1 WS is worth only 0.2% hit for D - WS > 10, instead of 0.4% hit

and less popular MAGEY’S FORMULA + 1% Ignorance + 0.4% WS

Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill <= 10
Hit Cap = 5% + (Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill) * 0.1%

Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill > 10
Hit Cap = 5% + (Target Defense - Attacker Weapon Skill - 10 ) * 0.4% + 1%

It’s for that ones, who believes, that 1 WS is worth 0.4% hit on 300 WS

You good pointed, that 1% +/- doesn’t make huge difference and in some reasons lack of hit can give us profits, but for better players 1% is everything and they want to know everything! :smiley:

Currently you can aim for casual players, “who don’t know mechanics”, because no one from “enlightened” players believes in 8.6% hit cap. (i asked them on warrior, rogue and paladin discords). It will be also their main point to avoid your simulator, because “they know the truth and you don’t” and “you falsify the results”. Don’t worry, because i asked them only about their point of view about 6.6% / 8.6% hit cap and i didn’t link this with your site or your formula.

PS. I never saw such toxic answers on discords, when i asked about it. They act like religious fanatics from Hit Cap Cult xD

22

Honestly I don’t really care what the hit cap is… I just want to have the correct formula.

Is there any proof/evidence/testing that the hit cap is 8% instead of 8.6% ? Something with statistical significance? Or an article somewhere that I can read where there is a justification for a new/different formula? If so, we’re happy to change it.

23

We have only that and most of players follow this.

By their tests:
For 300 WS and +3 lvl miss is around 8%
For 305 WS and +3 lvl miss is around 6%

24

So, I’ve gone through all of that when I put this together. It says right in there somewhere that they don’t have enough data to say for sure if the 8% or 8.6% hit cap theory is correct, which is why I just stuck with what was the prevailing theory at the time of vanilla. The formula I am using now agrees with all the data they have collected within their posted confidence interval.

It doesn’t really matter though. I can change the formula to be 8%. It won’t change the gear that is picked, but if it makes people feel better that’s all that really matters, right?

25

I’m still looking for truth, but others “already found it”.
I doubt that someone will do more accurate calculations and tests, when everybody believes in it.

:pensive:

26

If we could get a customization going to force the hit % to a certain value, this theorycrafting “conflict” would be dealt with.

Do you guys have such plans for the future? :slight_smile:

27

Yeah - we’ve stated it further up in the post. We’re working on a customization option that would let you force a certain hit cap.

And to clarify - we don’t see ourselves in conflict with anyone - folks asked us to extend our optimizer to classic, so we did! Our site has always found solutions a little bit different than the “mainstream” because we do everything based on data/calculations, removing human bias.

We knew hit would be a “thing” - it was back in the day. Half the reason our site was started in the first place was to deal with hit and expertise caps in the era of reforging!

1 Like
28

In our next update we can change the cap to 8% (with 300 skill when fighting a level 63 enemy), since that seems to be what people have settled on for Classic.

Note that this will have very little (or no) impact on the majority of optimizations, since it was not usually worth going up to 9% hit to get that last 0.6% off the table anyway.

Also note that we’ll have to just deal with all of the emails from people who still think they need 9% hit on gear! There are quite a few people out there still convinced of it… so we’ll see if this change ends up being more of a headache or less of one…

29

Not 9% hit cap for 300 WS and 6% hit cap for 305 WS? :smiley:

Reason is simply.

You can check on Warcraft logs any 2H warrior, retpala or hunter. They are the best sources of logs with 305 ws + 6% and 300 ws + 8/9% vs 63lvl

You will never notice anyone with 305 ws + 6%, that missed on boss, so 6.6% theory is refuted.
You will also never notice them with 300 ws + 9%, that missed on boss, but you will find logs, that they missed on 300 ws + 8%. Because there is pretty low chance that someone create set with hit cap between 8.6% and 9%, then 8% hit cap is refuted, we can’t confirm 8.6%, but we can confirm 9%.
Because 6.6% is refuted, then your formula with 8.6% it is also rather refuted.

6.6% is refuted, because we should find many misses on logs with 305 ws + 6% like in 300ws + 8%, because miss chance should be the same.

30

Also if i good remember your addon collecting data from users, so you can use it to make your own hit/miss tests. With that amount of testers your results should be every correct.

31

So… before you said the hit cap was definitely 8%. Now you say it’s definitely NOT 8%?

How about this: link me to an example log on warcraftlogs that proves the theory that you believe to be correct. Then I’ll know which one you want it to be!

32

my mistake in terminology. Sometimes under the influence of time and pressure I confuse them :smiley:

Link one?
Hmmm. Technically i should link you something, that refute our theory about 305ws+6% / 300ws+9% hit cap to prove your hit cap theory, but i can’t find any log with 305ws+6% / 300ws+9% that refute our hit cap theory, so i can refute your hit cap theory.