AMR telling me to use haste gems/enchants but it sims lower?

Hello all,

I posted this in the discord and I was told to make a thread about it. Here is the export for my character:

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If I sim multi target I get 41,527 DPS

If I go to the optimizer and optimize for mutli target it tells me to change all my crit stuff to haste stuff which afaik is against the common wisdom for feral.

Here’s the weirdest part, if I do that in AMR and sim for multi target I get 41,002 dps.

Ive re-ran each sim three times each and every time my current gemming/enchant is higher. What is the cause of this?

Thank you

I’ve borrowed this (again) but ignore the title of the quote - that’s the thread I borrowed it from… the relevance is still sound for all characters as far as AMR is concerned.
Hope this helps.

Why does it sim lower when I put the gems and enchants that optimizer tells me to do though?

Margin of error is the long and short of it.

It is not possible for us to make the optimizer exactly follow any single simulation test you might run. Our algorithm takes all the noisy simulation data and smooths it out into a function that can predict DPS based on that data.

In this case, assuming you play the game perfectly, you wouldn’t be able to tell a difference between your current setup and what BiB recommends. If you don’t want to switch your enchants to get a bit more haste, I’d recommend just leaving the gem/enchant threshold set to the default 0.5% - then there is no suggested change. You can also use the “customize” feature to push the optimizer towards a different stat (we have more options coming as well).

You are wondering how the optimizer could be “good” when the simulation says something different. In our opinion, what the optimizer picks is probably better than what you’d pick using just two data points from the simulator. Because we smooth out all the noise in the simulation data, we get much more stable suggestions. We can illustrate our point on this with an example: If you do nothing except add 10 haste to your gear, you know that your DPS will go up. If you simulate your gear with and without that 10 haste, sometimes it will say your DPS goes up, sometimes down. If you use our optimizer, adding 10 haste will always score better. That’s a silly example because the answer is obvious, but it illustrates how simulation can lead us astray if we don’t use enough data.

You can safely follow what the optimizer picks and play well - but at the same time we understand the desire for some players to customize, so we have the tools for that too!

I think I understand what you’re saying. Do you mean that if I simmed the gear optimizer suggestion (haste) like 1000 times and averaged those and then my current Crit setup the same that on average the haste would be higher? Am I getting thrown off by just not having enough data. I have noticed that the dps numbers in the sim can swing pretty heavy sim to sim just rerunning it

The simulator works by running the same fight thousands of times and averaging the results to get an estimate of the “true” average DPS of your setup. The uncertainty (margin of error) on that average depends on how many runs you average together. You can adjust the margin of error setting in the simulator to reduce this uncertainty, but never eliminate it entirely.

Swol was using the trivial example of a very tiny change that will always be below the margin of error of any reasonable simulation, but where the optimizer can always give you the correct answer, because it uses a different approach. This illustrates how an interpretation of a bunch of simulation data can improve on simply using the “raw” simulation data to rank gear.

There’s actually a lot more to it than examples like that, but it gives you the idea.