Bloodvine set for Locks and +hit

I am coming under quite a bit of pressure from guild that I need focus on +hit… and its a no brainer to go for Bloodvine set (I not tailor). I just use your recommendations - which do not seem to stack hit as such a priority… and Bloodvine set is not the “no brainer” they seem advocate. They quote Warlock discord model/Icey veins/Wowhead as all sources of pushing hit.
Any reason why I getting recommendations not aligned to the meta? Here is my snapshot Id from the upgrade finder tool.


Thanks in advance for any insight/guidance
P.S. For BIS… the tool just has “damage” as option . and say maximise raid damage… I presume that means boss damage? i/we dont care about trash damage… am I correct?
P.P.S I trying settle on using your tool… as I really dont want to get dragged into all this neckbeard stuff… but this has piqued my interest :confused:

Oh man, the good old hit cap debate!

Our tool calculates single target boss damage only, as that is generally the most important to gear for and the gear sets work fine for the trash too.

There is nothing magical about hit compared to other stats like spell power. Our calculations take into account everything and calculate the best result. Being a couple % shy of the hit cap is no big deal. If you cast 100 shadow bolts in a fight and miss 1% of the time… that’s one shadow bolt. Giving up a big chunk of stats to not miss that one time does not always make sense. We do the math so you can know what gear gives the best result.

All that being said… we’re arguing about tiny, tiny differences in overall DPS. If you don’t want to think about it - just equip the gear BiB recommends and you’ll be good. If someone wants to give you trouble about it, tell them to come here and argue their point and leave you out of it :wink:

I guess that is my queue to say hello :smiley: .

My standing is that a warlock (or caster in general) shouldn’t be going for crit before getting a good hit% basis. Which I would estimate at around 10%. Since my guildie doesn’t currently have that I was pushing to get him to get more hit gear and that’s where our discussion began. I am not sure how much aware you are of my guildie’s current gear but we are not talking 14% vs 13% hit while it getting replaced by some crit here. We are talking about having 5% hit and your tool prioritizing gear with crit over gear with hit. I am not that familiar with Askmrrobot’s tool (and for sure don’t plan to pay for it just for this argument xD) or the calculations behind it. I personally use an excel sheet from the warlock discord, made by Zephan. When I compare both options on my guildie’s current gear setup, bloodvine chest would lead to a 7 dps increase (no world buffs but with raid buffs) and nemesis robes would lead to a 4 dps increase (so 3 dps less than bloodvine) I suspect it might have to do with the valuation of crit and or hit in your tool and that they have the same value for sp/dps output no matter the current hit/crit value. Either way I wonder what causes this difference between these tools.

Kind regards :slight_smile:

So, we’re comparing bloodvine vest, 13int, 27sp, 2% hit to nemesis robes, 16int, 32sp, 1%crit, 23sp bonus

Just that one item in a vacuum looks like a clear downgrade going to bloodvine.

Looking at shadow bolt damage: 510 base, 0.8571 sp coeff

Right now he has 9% hit on gear, for a 16 - 9 = 7% chance to miss, 10.9% chance to crit + 5% from talents.

15% damage from sacrifice, 10% damage from curse of shadows, and lets say he can get full benefit from imp shadow bolt, 20%

(510 + 578 * 0.8571) * 1.15 * 1.1 *1.2 = 1526.2

The average shadow bolt will be:
(Base * 2 * crit chance + Base * (1 - crit chance)) * (1 - miss chance)
(1526.2 * 2 * 0.159 + 1526.2 * (1 - 0.159)) * (1 - 0.07)

If we swap out the chest item we get:
(510 + 550 * 0.8571) * 1.15 * 1.1 *1.2 = 1489.773

The average shadow bolt will be:
(Base * 2 * crit chance + Base * (1 - crit chance)) * (1 - miss chance)
(1489.773 * 2 * 0.149 + 1526.2 * (1 - 0.149)) * (1 - 0.05)

This isn’t the full calculation that our model of the game does, but this is the meat of what you would calculate for a warlock and clearly illustrates what we deem the correct way to factor hit into a mathematical model. If you miss 5% of the time, you do 5% less damage. In statistical terms, it is not a binary event that has value unto itself. 2% hit is essentially 2% damage, and then you have to calculate if the stats you lose (in this case crit and spell power) are worth more or less than 2% of your damage.

In this case, missing 2% more often with higher stats will be a DPS increase.

– I noticed yojji is optimizing with the setting to use corruption, just thought I’d mention it in case that is not what is happening in-game. Usually you can’t use corruption in raids as a warlock. Doesn’t affect this discussion really, but one of the nice things about our optimizer is that we take into account a lot of different variables like fight length, optional spells, etc.

Thank you so much for going through the details. The meat of what you say (i.e. if your damage through more crit + SP makes up for the miss… then surely it would be the way to go)… is conceptually how I understood it… and why I happy to trust MrRobot…it just seemed logical to me. Your addition of the hard maths will hopefully help get the message across to the doubters… or give them something to challange you if they still think its wrong. Either way, we hopefully edge towards a common understanding… and things get/stay aligned.
In answer to your question re Corruption… yes…in raids, we dont have enough debuff slots for all locks to use corruption… so we tend take turns on who can use in each raid (even then … can still see it get knocked off :frowning: )
So thank you again for taking the trouble to explain (again? your first reply made it sound like you been through this a hundred times… may be pin it? :wink: )
If I feeling brave… I may post this thread into the Warlock discord (the hotbed of “you must go hit” I understand) … so you may get more “feedback”.
All the best :slight_smile:

@Swol Sorry - Im back… In some follow up chat… someone is questioning your model/maths. They say that
" Next to that he calculates the average shadowbolt by adding the shadowbolt with crit with the shadowbolt without crit. He only accounts for hit in the shadowbolt without crit." and suggests this is an error in your calcs.
Can you clarify please? I am keen to put this one to bed.
I notice you do say there are extra things MrRobot takes into account (they use examples of mana pools and life taps etc) but I assume these are incorporated into the “Full calculation” you mention - and beyond the scope of this small and relatively simple example we talking about here.

I think they misread my parenthesis. The reduction for hit is a multiplier on everything, both crit and non crit.

And yes, the full model takes into account mana pool. That part has little bearing on the hit discussion though.

I’ve been having some form of this discussion for 15 years. In later expansions that still included hit rating, it became commonly accepted that focusing on hit cap was not important in and of itself. In general, hit rating was over valued during classic the first go around.

After a long time of sticking to our guns during wotlk when our first optimizer was available, folks started to come around to our view on caps. You know, right around when they took it out of the game.

1 Like