Low Priority Math issue (I did Math, I hurt myself in my confusion...)

Note to those reading, there is a lot of Math incoming, run now you can if you dislike that :wink:
If you do like math, please check mine and point out mistakes, I want to understand this!

So I have been checking out the guides a bit. And I came past something that makes little sense to me.
This guide when Tier 1 combos set to 1%, suggests 3 builds with Natures Balance are within tier 1 and 2 with Force of Nature. But 0 with Warrior of Elune.

AP == Astral Power, CD == Cooldown.
LS == Lunar Strike, SS == Starsurge.
WoL == Warrior of Elune, FoN == Force of Nature, NB == Nature’s Balance.

Now here is my issue, when I look at WoE, the talent I am using as I always assumed it was the best of three;
WoE is 3x LS instant + 40% more astral power.
Normally, LS gives 12 AP, +40% (being rounded up like happens in the game) becomes 17.
That is a direct 15 AP more from all 3 instant LS. In the time we save from 3x instant cast, we can cast 1 manual LS, for an additional (indirect) 12 extra AP. This makes for 27 AP for every use.

WoE gives 27 AP on a 45s CD would be 0.6 AP per sec.
FoN gives a direct 20 AP. For a 1 minute CD, which would translate into 0.333 AP per sec.
NB gives 2 AP per 3 seconds, which is 0.666AP per sec.

From the AP alone, I would expect NB >> WoE >> FoN.
NB and WoE do no direct damage. FoN does, but it is marginally irrelevant. I have seen logs in the past where it was used on CD and the treats did have constant attacks and did less than 1% of total damage in a fight. So that could certainly not put FoN above WoE.

To me that alone completely negates FoN already, as it is obviously a weaker talent. If we add the indirect damage increase WoE gets from the amount of time saved or the increased AP it generates, FoN becomes the weaker choice for just another reason.

If we then consider the burst ability we get from WoE in bost single-target and multi-target fights;

NB generates 0.066 more AP per second. For a 40AP requirement for SS, this gives me 1 extra SS per 606 seconds. That’s 10 (fkng) minutes… So 1 SS in an entire fight, if I am lucky the boss survives that long. Sure, 2 if you take the 50AP at the start, but 2 SS in an entire fight, is once again marginal damage.
Versus WoE that gives us an extra cast of LS every 45s from the time we save, that would be, in the same 10 minutes as NB, 13.3 LS extra.
Now I know SS deals more damage and it gives us two buffs…
But I can not believe that 2 SS is stronger than 13 LS. Which is only taking single-target into consideration. If we take the multi-target into consideration, LS hits those multi targets, where SS does not.

Can anyone explain to me how FoN and NB are considered better than WoE, while the math above (which is correct as far as I know) clearly shows WoE is the best of three talents?

I’m not going to go line by line, but I think I can answer your question in a really unsatisfying way!

1.) Warrior of Elune in that data is very close to those other two talents. If you set the threshold at 1.5%, you’ll find a combo in that top tier. Can our data really get THAT close between different builds? Questionable. We allow it on the UI for science. You wouldn’t be able to feel the difference if you played optimally with each build.

2.) This math you did follows some seemingly decent logic, but, when it comes down to it, the relative values of talents cannot be calculated with napkin math in any way that approaches the precision we’re looking at here. If that was possible, we wouldn’t need the simulator and our job would be way easier. The relationships between all the abilities, the order you cast them in, etc. just gets too complex for napkin math to figure it out.

I am sure you are totally not satisfied with that explanation!