WOTLK Feral Hit and Expertise value

Hi team @ AMR.

I have a question about the WOTLK feral druid and how it values hit and expertise.

For reference, your generic ‘Meow’ feral character with default settings showing p2 bis here:

The model isn’t particularly concerned with the hit cap, and it appears that the expertise cap isn’t desirable either (checked other AMR phase bis sets).

I went through the top parsers on Warcraft logs: Warcraft Logs - Combat Analysis for Warcraft

And it is incredibly rare to find the top-performing cats without the hit cap, and those that are (just) under are much higher than the ~2.59% recommended here.

Is this a case of the sim mistakenly not valuing hit and expertise properly? Or is this an optimisation that the best ferals have overlooked?

I am aware of the stat threshold requirement option, but I am getting odd results here and wanted to ask about the above point first.

We adjusted the value of hit to more accurately account for the energy penalty of missing with a spender… thought it would make hit more valuable but apparently it had the opposite effect!

I can try adjusting it again to favor hit more aggressively. I don’t think you would see a significant difference in-game, but it generally “feels” bad to miss more often.

Is your feeling that these top feral parses would still be the top parses without hit-cap?

Absolutely. I think the top parses would be even higher if they didn’t get the hit cap. The variance between a player’s highest and lowest parses would go up, but the higher ones would be higher if they moved some stats out of hit.

Top players tend to go for lowest variance instead of highest potential parse.

If that was the case then surely there would be a top parse with low hit? I cannot find one.

I think that it would be hard to have BiS gear and have very low hit. You might be a few % off the cap if you didn’t try particularly to get capped, but I think the itemization available pushes people close enough to the cap that it’s going to be hard to gather enough empirical data to see how good hit/exp really is.

There is a good reason they dumped these stats from the game. It feels like something you have to have, so everyone gets it. But once you average it out… doesn’t matter all that much if you are 1% below the cap or 4% below the cap. Every time you miss, though… you feel like it’s because you geared wrong, even though that isn’t really the case.

Yeah as Swol said, it’s tough to have top-end gear and very low hit+expertise… many of the best items will have at least some of it.

That said, if you think about it purely theoretically for a minute… if you wanted to get the absolute best rank on a fight, and you had almost any combination of stats available to you… you would dump all of your hit/exp, keep your crit rate at some usable but not-too-high level, and stack pure damage stats as high as you can (attack power, armor pen, haste, etc.). Then you do the fight a bazillion times until you get insanely lucky and don’t miss very often and get a ton of lucky crits. You’d absolutely crush it. You want that parse where you miss rate is way lower than your average, and your crit rate is way higher than your average.

The variance is so high on that though… it rarely feels good to play that way.

Hi folks thanks for taking the time to run me through the thought process (Y)

Also – I did make a change in the last update to favor hit/expertise more aggressively for feral. Even if on paper dropping a tad of hit could theoretically be a minor average gain… it doesn’t feel great if your miss rate starts to get too high.