I have seen a number of questions regarding how the optimizer handles hit rating in classic.
TLDR: If the optimizer doesn’t take you to the hit cap, that’s ok! Mr. Robot is aware of all the math and did it on purpose.
Here are all the ways your attacks can do nothing in WoW Classic:
Against a level 63 mob (raid boss)
8%* chance to miss with special or “yellow” attacks like bloodthirst, backstab, etc.
8%* chance to miss with melee auto (and auto shots) “white” attacks when not dual wielding
26.4% chance to miss with melee auto “white” attacks when dual wielding
6.5% chance that physical attacks will be dodged
14% chance that physical attacks will be parried when attacking from the front
5% chance that physical attacks will be blocked when attacking from the front
16% chance to miss with spells
*The first 1% of hit on your gear is ignored against raid bosses if the boss is more than 10 defense skill above your weapon skill, so you will often see people say the “hit cap” is actually 9%. This refers to how much hit on gear you would need to overcome the 8% chance to miss.
This is why it is “important” to get to 305 weapon skill if possible. Once you reach that point where the boss is 10 or less defense skill above your weapon skill, that first 1% hit from gear is no longer ignored.
Weapon Skill essentially gives you a chance to hit as well as reduces the boss’s chance to dodge
Raid bosses have 315 defense
To calculate chance to miss, you use the formula:
diff = Target Defense - Your Weapon Skill if diff > 10 Miss Chance = 5 + diff * 0.2 else Miss Chance = 5 + diff * 0.1
Here are some examples of what that comes out to:
- 8% at 300 weapon skill
- 6% at 305 weapon skill
- 5% at 315 weapon skill
Dual Wield miss penalty is
Miss * 0.8 + 0.2
With 300 weapon skill, miss is 26.4%
With 305 weapon skill, miss is 24.8%
With 315 weapon skill, miss is 24.0%
**There is a “thing” where warriors’ off-hand will use the “yellow” hit chance while a heroic strike is queued up.
Boss’s chance to dodge you is:
Dodge Chance = (5+(Boss Level*5-Weapon Skill)*0.1)/100
With 300 weapon skill, dodge is 6.5%
With 305 weapon skill, dodge is 6.0%
With 315 weapon skill, dodge is 5.0%
As an example, if you are a dual-wield fury warrior with 305 weapon skill and 5% hit on your gear:
Miss Chance = 6% - 5% = 1%
Dodge Chance = 6.0%
So, your Bloodthirst will be avoided 6.0 + 1.0 = 7.0% of the time. Getting 1% more hit on your gear so that you are “capped” would still leave you having 6% of your Bloodthirsts avoided by the boss.
There is nothing magical about the hit cap in classic! You’re still going to be unlucky sometimes and have your attacks avoided. Our advice is to not stress out about a couple % of hit and trust in the math.
We are using the current most popular theory about how hit, miss, dodge, etc. works in WoW Classic. It is important to note that it is just a theory, but it should be very close to observed values in-game. We referenced the following:
Note that the github page references the wow wiki article as well. A few notes on these sources:
- There is no evidence provided for the wow wiki entry – no tests, confirmation from blizzard, etc.
- The “officially confirmed by blizzard” section of the github page that deal with chance to hit reference posts that no longer exist, so we’re not sure if they were actually confirmed or not.
- The tests on the github page seem to confirm the theory about weapon skill reasonably well, but it lacks any tests for the idea that the first 1% of hit from gear is ignored.
That said, most people are reasonably confident that this is how it works, so we’re gonna roll with it. Be sure to let us know if you come across any evidence that things have changed from this theory!
Also note that for clarity, we have updated this original post based on the discussion in this thread, and deleted/hidden the posts that have been summarized and addressed. Feel free to reply with any further comments though – any discussion that results in changes will be summarized again at a later date.